Somalia’s Journey to One-Person, One-Vote Elections:

A Complex Road Ahead
Ahmed Farah

Somalia, a nation marred by decades of civil unrest, political turmoil, and the specter of extremist groups, stands at a crucial juncture in its history. The announcement of the introduction of universal voting rights from June 2024 has sparked a debate on whether the country is truly ready for one-person, one-vote elections. To understand this, it’s imperative to delve into Somalia’s tumultuous past, its struggle for democracy, and the myriad challenges it faces today.

Historically, Somalia has grappled with governance issues since the collapse of the Siad Barre regime in 1991. Amidst this chaos, the last semblance of a democratic government was witnessed during Sharmarke’s regime, which ended prematurely due to political assassinations and internal strife. Prior to this, during Aden Abdulle Osman’s era, a different voting system was in place, characterized by clan-based representation rather than universal suffrage. This system, though reflective of Somalia’s complex clan dynamics, was not without its flaws, often leading to exclusion and marginalization.

Fast forward to the present, and Somalia continues to navigate a landscape marked by lawlessness, armed conflict, and the pervasive influence of groups like Al-Shabaab. Despite commendable efforts towards state-building and democratic reforms, the road to peaceful elections remains fraught with challenges.

One of the primary concerns is the presence of Al-Shabaab, an extremist group notorious for its campaign of violence and intimidation. Drawing parallels with the Taliban’s actions in Afghanistan, there is a genuine fear that Al-Shabaab could seek to disrupt the electoral process, instilling fear in the hearts of voters and undermining the credibility of the elections. The recent history of Afghanistan serves as a stark reminder of how extremist groups can target those participating in democratic processes, posing a significant threat to stability and progress.

Moreover, Somalia’s state-building initiatives have been hindered by internal divisions, lack of infrastructure, and weak institutional capacity. The country’s federal structure, while intended to promote inclusivity and decentralization, has sometimes exacerbated tensions between the central government and regional administrations, leading to administrative gridlock and political deadlock.

However, amidst these challenges, there have been notable strides towards democratic governance. The commitment of Somalia’s government and federal member states to move towards universal voting rights signifies a willingness to embrace democratic principles and empower citizens. Additionally, international partners have provided support and assistance to strengthen electoral institutions and promote civic engagement.

The question remains: Is Somalia truly ready for one-person, one-vote elections? The answer lies in a nuanced understanding of the country’s socio-political landscape and a recognition of the complex interplay of factors at play. While significant obstacles exist, including the threat of extremist violence and institutional weaknesses, Somalia has demonstrated resilience and determination in its pursuit of democracy.

Ultimately, the success of one-person, one-vote elections in Somalia will hinge on a multifaceted approach that addresses security concerns, fosters political reconciliation, and builds trust in the electoral process. It will require concerted efforts from both domestic stakeholders and the international community to overcome the challenges ahead and pave the way for a more inclusive and democratic Somalia.