Unraveling the Disillusionment:The Pretoria Agreement, the Abiy-Bihi MoU, and Ethiopia's Imperative to Chart a New Course

In the intricate web of Ethiopian politics, recent agreements and diplomatic maneuvers have left the nation grappling with uncertainty and disillusionment. Among these, the Pretoria Agreement stands as a testament to promises unfulfilled, while the emergence of the Abiy-Bihi Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) adds yet another layer of complexity to Ethiopia's tumultuous narrative.

Crafted under the auspices of international mediation, the Pretoria Agreement was initially celebrated as a milestone towards peace in a region marred by conflict. However, its subsequent abandonment and the transition to the Nairobi process raise troubling questions about the sincerity of the parties involved and the true motives driving their actions. What prompted this sudden shift, and why did the disarmament process stall, leaving unresolved tensions to fester?

Furthermore, the involvement of African personalities in these agreements warrants scrutiny. Were they genuine facilitators of peace, or merely pawns in a geopolitical chess game? The facade of an "African" initiative may have obscured ulterior motives, ultimately leaving the Ethiopian populace disillusioned and distrustful of diplomatic efforts.

The Abiy-Bihi MoU, in contrast, represents a departure from the diplomatic finesse of the Pretoria Agreement. Its rushed and desperate nature underscores the escalating internal pressures faced by the Ethiopian government. However, far from fostering unity, the MoU has exacerbated ethnic tensions, particularly between Oromos and Somalis, undermining Ethiopia's cultural diversity and historical coexistence.

The ramifications of these maneuvers extend beyond diplomatic circles, with external actors like the UAE exploiting the chaos to further their own agendas. As political machinations unfold, it is the Ethiopian people who suffer the consequences, with marginalized communities bearing the brunt of division and distrust.

Acknowledging the fierce Somali defense of their country is crucial in understanding the potential consequences of further escalation. Somalia has a long and tumultuous history of armed conflict, with its people accustomed to the hardships and sacrifices of war. In contrast, Ethiopia has enjoyed relative peace for the past three decades, making it ill-prepared for the consequences of a protracted military confrontation.

In the event of all-out war between Somalia and Ethiopia, Ethiopia stands to lose far more than Somalia. While Somalia may have less to lose materially, its resilience and familiarity with conflict give it a significant advantage in any military engagement. Ethiopia, on the other hand, risks not only the loss of life and resources but also the destabilization of the entire region.

It is imperative for Ethiopia to recognize that the pursuit of short-term political gains at the expense of long-term stability is a misguided strategy. The nation must heed the lessons of its past and chart a new course—one rooted in transparency, inclusivity, and a genuine commitment to addressing the grievances of all its citizens.

As such, Ethiopia should reconsider its approach towards the MoU with Somaliland, recognizing that it is unlikely to yield fruitful results. Instead, the nation must prioritize inclusive dialogue and genuine reconciliation efforts that encompass the concerns and aspirations of all Ethiopians.

In conclusion, Ethiopia stands at a pivotal moment in its history, where the choices made today will shape the nation's future for generations to come. Only through a steadfast commitment to justice, accountability, and genuine reconciliation can Ethiopia overcome its current challenges and build a brighter, more unified future for all its citizens. Ignoring the realities of Somalia's resilience and the potential consequences of further conflict would be a grave mistake—one that Ethiopia cannot afford to make.