Unraveling the Disillusionment:The Pretoria Agreement,
the Abiy-Bihi MoU, and Ethiopia's Imperative to Chart a New Course
In
the intricate web of Ethiopian politics, recent agreements and diplomatic
maneuvers have left the nation grappling with uncertainty and disillusionment.
Among these, the Pretoria Agreement stands as a testament to promises
unfulfilled, while the emergence of the Abiy-Bihi Memorandum of Understanding
(MoU) adds yet another layer of complexity to Ethiopia's tumultuous narrative.
Crafted
under the auspices of international mediation, the Pretoria Agreement was
initially celebrated as a milestone towards peace in a region marred by
conflict. However, its subsequent abandonment and the transition to the Nairobi
process raise troubling questions about the sincerity of the parties involved
and the true motives driving their actions. What prompted this sudden shift,
and why did the disarmament process stall, leaving unresolved tensions to
fester?
Furthermore,
the involvement of African personalities in these agreements warrants scrutiny.
Were they genuine facilitators of peace, or merely pawns in a geopolitical
chess game? The facade of an "African" initiative may have obscured
ulterior motives, ultimately leaving the Ethiopian populace disillusioned and
distrustful of diplomatic efforts.
The
Abiy-Bihi MoU, in contrast, represents a departure from the diplomatic finesse
of the Pretoria Agreement. Its rushed and desperate nature underscores the
escalating internal pressures faced by the Ethiopian government. However, far
from fostering unity, the MoU has exacerbated ethnic tensions, particularly
between Oromos and Somalis, undermining Ethiopia's cultural diversity and
historical coexistence.
The
ramifications of these maneuvers extend beyond diplomatic circles, with
external actors like the UAE exploiting the chaos to further their own agendas.
As political machinations unfold, it is the Ethiopian people who suffer the
consequences, with marginalized communities bearing the brunt of division and
distrust.
Acknowledging
the fierce Somali defense of their country is crucial in understanding the
potential consequences of further escalation. Somalia has a long and tumultuous
history of armed conflict, with its people accustomed to the hardships and
sacrifices of war. In contrast, Ethiopia has enjoyed relative peace for the
past three decades, making it ill-prepared for the consequences of a protracted
military confrontation.
In
the event of all-out war between Somalia and Ethiopia, Ethiopia stands to lose
far more than Somalia. While Somalia may have less to lose materially, its
resilience and familiarity with conflict give it a significant advantage in any
military engagement. Ethiopia, on the other hand, risks not only the loss of
life and resources but also the destabilization of the entire region.
It
is imperative for Ethiopia to recognize that the pursuit of short-term
political gains at the expense of long-term stability is a misguided strategy.
The nation must heed the lessons of its past and chart a new course—one rooted
in transparency, inclusivity, and a genuine commitment to addressing the
grievances of all its citizens.
As
such, Ethiopia should reconsider its approach towards the MoU with Somaliland,
recognizing that it is unlikely to yield fruitful results. Instead, the nation
must prioritize inclusive dialogue and genuine reconciliation efforts that
encompass the concerns and aspirations of all Ethiopians.
In
conclusion, Ethiopia stands at a pivotal moment in its history, where the
choices made today will shape the nation's future for generations to come. Only
through a steadfast commitment to justice, accountability, and genuine
reconciliation can Ethiopia overcome its current challenges and build a
brighter, more unified future for all its citizens. Ignoring the realities of
Somalia's resilience and the potential consequences of further conflict would
be a grave mistake—one that Ethiopia cannot afford to make.