Global Affairs in 2025: A Year of Uncertainty and Transformation

The world in 2025 is a complex and evolving landscape, influenced by geopolitical tensions, economic fluctuations, rapid technological advancements, and pressing environmental concerns. Nations and global institutions continue to navigate these challenges, striving for stability and progress amid uncertainty.

Geopolitics and Conflicts

Geopolitical conflicts remain at the forefront of global affairs, with Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Asia being particularly volatile regions. The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to impact global security dynamics, with NATO and Western allies providing substantial military and economic aid. Despite enduring economic sanctions, Russia remains resilient, forging stronger ties with China, Iran, and North Korea to counter Western influence.

The Israel-Palestine conflict has escalated, drawing widespread international criticism and diplomatic efforts to broker peace. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza has led to renewed international calls for a two-state solution, but diplomatic progress remains slow. Meanwhile, the U.S.-China rivalry remains a dominant issue, with increasing tensions over Taiwan, trade, and military presence in the Pacific. The South China Sea continues to be a flashpoint, with territorial disputes involving multiple Southeast Asian nations adding to regional instability.

Africa continues to grapple with regional instability, particularly in Sudan, Ethiopia, and the Sahel region, where terrorism and insurgencies challenge governmental control. Climate-induced conflicts over scarce resources have intensified, leading to cross-border tensions and mass displacements. In Latin America, political instability, economic downturns, and migration crises dominate discussions, with Venezuela, Haiti, and Nicaragua being key focal points. The resurgence of leftist governments in several Latin American countries has led to shifts in alliances, while drug cartels continue to wield significant influence over governance and security.

Economic Challenges and Trade Shifts

The global economy faces numerous uncertainties as inflation, supply chain disruptions, and energy price volatility persist. While the U.S. and EU have largely recovered from the economic downturns caused by the pandemic, high interest rates and debt concerns continue to pose significant challenges. The labor market remains tight in some sectors while automation threatens job security in others.

China, once a powerhouse of economic growth, is experiencing a slowdown due to real estate market crises, regulatory crackdowns, and declining foreign investment. Efforts to shift from an export-driven economy to a consumer-driven model have been met with mixed success. Foreign companies are increasingly diversifying supply chains to reduce dependence on China, benefiting countries like India, Vietnam, and Mexico.

The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) continue to push for a more multipolar economic order, challenging the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global trade. The expansion of BRICS to include additional members has strengthened its influence, though internal divisions persist. Additionally, AI-driven automation and green energy transitions are reshaping industries, creating new economic opportunities while posing challenges for developing nations striving to keep pace with technological advancements.

Cryptocurrency and decentralized finance (DeFi) continue to disrupt traditional financial systems. Governments are increasingly regulating digital assets, but adoption remains uneven, with some nations embracing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) while others ban crypto transactions outright.

Technological Advancements and Cybersecurity Threats

Technology remains a driving force of change, with artificial intelligence (AI) revolutionizing sectors such as healthcare, finance, defense, and education. However, ethical concerns surrounding AI development and deployment are prompting global discussions on regulatory frameworks. Governments and private sector leaders are debating AI governance models, with concerns about data privacy, bias, and automation-driven job displacement at the forefront.

Quantum computing is advancing rapidly, promising breakthroughs in data processing and encryption. Governments and corporations are in a race to achieve quantum supremacy, which could have profound implications for cybersecurity, financial modeling, and medical research.

Meanwhile, space exploration is accelerating, with NASA, SpaceX, China, and India competing to expand their presence on the Moon and Mars. The growing commercial space industry is driving innovations in satellite communications, asteroid mining, and deep-space travel. However, concerns about the militarization of space persist, with major powers investing in anti-satellite weaponry and space-based defense systems.

Cybersecurity threats continue to pose serious risks, with cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure, businesses, and governments. Nations are investing heavily in cybersecurity to counter espionage, ransomware, and misinformation campaigns that threaten global stability. Cyber warfare has become a key element of geopolitical strategy, with state-sponsored hacking groups launching coordinated attacks on rival nations.

Environmental and Climate Concerns

Climate change remains a pressing issue, with extreme weather events such as storms, droughts, and wildfires becoming more frequent. Rising sea levels are threatening coastal cities, prompting urgent discussions on climate adaptation and disaster resilience. Despite global agreements like the Paris Accord, many nations struggle to meet emissions reduction targets. The transition to renewable energy is accelerating, but political and economic hurdles slow the pace of change.

Investments in renewable energy—particularly solar, wind, and nuclear power—are increasing, yet dependence on fossil fuels remains a significant challenge. Oil and gas-producing nations are facing economic restructuring pressures as global demand for alternative energy sources grows. Green hydrogen is emerging as a key player in the energy transition, with major investments being made in its development and infrastructure.

Water scarcity and food security are emerging crises, particularly in Africa and South Asia, prompting international organizations to push for sustainable solutions. Climate-induced agricultural disruptions are affecting global food supply chains, leading to price spikes and food shortages in vulnerable regions. The debate over genetically modified crops and lab-grown meat is intensifying, with proponents arguing for increased food security and critics warning of unforeseen ecological consequences.

Social and Cultural Shifts

Migration continues to be a major global issue, driven by conflicts, poverty, and climate change. Countries such as the U.S., Australia, and several European nations are tightening immigration policies, leading to heated debates on humanitarian responsibilities. Conversely, labor shortages in some developed countries have spurred selective immigration reforms. The migrant crisis at the U.S.-Mexico border remains a politically divisive issue, with debates over asylum policies and border security intensifying.

Social movements advocating for human rights, gender equality, and digital freedoms continue to gain traction. However, authoritarian regimes are increasingly cracking down on dissent, leading to a global conversation on the balance between free speech and government regulation of online content. Internet censorship is on the rise in many countries, with governments using AI-driven surveillance technologies to monitor and control public discourse.

The rise of the metaverse and virtual reality (VR) technologies is reshaping entertainment, work, and social interactions. While some see the metaverse as a revolutionary digital frontier, others warn of privacy concerns and the potential for social isolation. The debate over the ethical implications of AI-generated content, deepfakes, and virtual influencers is intensifying.

Conclusion

As 2025 unfolds, the world remains in a state of flux. Power struggles, economic transitions, and technological breakthroughs shape the geopolitical landscape, while climate change and social movements demand urgent attention. In this era of rapid change, nations and institutions must collaborate to navigate challenges, foster stability, and drive progress in an increasingly interconnected world.

The future will be defined by how global leaders respond to these crises and opportunities. Will nations prioritize diplomacy over conflict? Can humanity harness technology for the collective good? Will climate commitments translate into tangible actions? The answers to these questions will shape the trajectory of the coming decades, determining whether the world moves toward a more sustainable, inclusive, and peaceful future or succumbs to deepening divisions and crises.

SOMALIA'S JOURNEY TO BECOMING A MEMBER OF THE EAST AFRICAN COMMUNITY: OPPORTUNITIES, CHALLENGES, AND THE PATH FORWARD

Somalia's journey to becoming a member of the East African Community (EAC) culminated in its official admission as the bloc's eighth partner state on November 24, 2023. This milestone was achieved during the 24th Ordinary Summit of the EAC Heads of State in Arusha, Tanzania, where President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud announced Somalia's accession.

The Long Road to Membership

The process began in March 2012 when Somalia first applied for EAC membership. Over the years, the application underwent various evaluations and discussions. A significant development occurred on June 6, 2023, when the EAC Heads of State Summit adopted the verification report assessing Somalia's readiness to join the community.

Following the November 2023 announcement, Somalia signed the Treaty of Accession on December 15, 2023, at a ceremony held at the presidential residence in Kampala, Uganda. The final step in the membership process was completed on March 4, 2024, when Somalia's Minister of Commerce and Industry, Jibril Abdirashid Haji, presented the instrument of ratification to the EAC Secretary-General at the EAC headquarters in Arusha, Tanzania.

Pros and Cons of Somalia’s Membership

Pros:

1. Economic Integration: Somalia can benefit from increased trade opportunities, economic partnerships, and access to the EAC common market, which can drive economic growth.
2. Infrastructure Development: Membership can attract investment in infrastructure, including roads, ports, and energy, vital for regional connectivity.
3. Security Cooperation: Somalia can benefit from regional security initiatives, which can help combat terrorism and piracy.
4. Labor Mobility: Somali workers can find opportunities within EAC states, helping to reduce unemployment and boost remittances.
5. Market Expansion for Somali Businesses: Access to EAC markets can help Somali businesses expand their reach and increase trade volumes.

Cons:

1. Institutional Challenges: Somalia still faces governance and institutional stability issues that may hinder full integration.
2. Economic Disparities: The Somali economy remains fragile, and integration could expose local industries to stiff competition from more developed EAC economies.
3. Security Concerns: Ongoing conflicts and insecurity in Somalia could pose challenges to regional stability.
4. Visa-Free Movement Delays: Despite pledges for free movement, Somali passport holders still require visas to enter EAC states, creating barriers to full integration.

Somalia’s Contributions to the EAC

1. Natural Resources: Somalia possesses untapped oil, gas, and mineral resources that can boost the regional economy.
2. Maritime Trade and Ports: With its strategic location along the Indian Ocean, Somalia can enhance regional maritime trade and shipping logistics.
3. Livestock and Agriculture: Somalia’s livestock industry can provide a reliable supply of meat and dairy products to EAC markets.
4. Cultural and Human Resource Exchange: The Somali diaspora and entrepreneurs can bring investments, skills, and innovations to the EAC region.

Challenges to EAC Integration

Despite Somalia’s accession, the full realization of its benefits remains hindered by:

1. Delayed Visa-Free Movement: Somali passport holders are still required to obtain visas, contradicting EAC’s principle of free movement.
2. Legal and Regulatory Reforms: Somalia needs to harmonize its policies with EAC regulations to facilitate smoother economic and trade integration.
3. Political Stability: Continued efforts are needed to ensure internal stability and effective governance to build confidence among EAC partners.
4. Infrastructure Deficiencies: Somalia needs investments in transport and energy sectors to improve connectivity within the region.

Recommendations for Strengthening Somalia’s Role in the EAC

1. Fast-Track Free Movement Agreements: The Somali government must engage with EAC member states to ensure Somali passport holders can travel freely without visas.
2. Enhance Economic Reforms: Implement policies that support trade, investment, and business growth to maximize the benefits of EAC membership.
3. Strengthen Security and Governance: Political stability and security reforms will foster trust among EAC partners and encourage further economic cooperation.
4. Invest in Infrastructure: Prioritize the development of roads, ports, and communication networks to facilitate trade and mobility.
5. Leverage Diplomatic Engagement: Somalia should actively participate in EAC meetings, negotiations, and regional projects to assert its influence within the community.

Conclusion

Somalia’s membership in the EAC marks a historic step towards regional integration, economic cooperation, and security collaboration. However, challenges remain in fully realizing its benefits, particularly in ensuring visa-free travel for Somali citizens. By addressing institutional weaknesses, investing in economic reforms, and leveraging its strategic resources, Somalia can play a significant role in making the EAC a beacon of prosperity within Africa. A well-integrated Somalia in the EAC could unlock untapped potential and create a stronger, more united East African region.

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF LEADERSHIP: PRESIDENT HASSAN SHEIKH MOHAMUD VS. FORMER PRESIDENT MOHAMED ABDULLAHI FARMAJO IN SOMALIA

Introduction

Somalia has experienced significant political transitions over the past decade, with leadership playing a crucial role in shaping the country's stability, security, and governance. Two key figures in Somalia's modern political landscape are President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo. Their contrasting leadership styles, policies, and approaches to governance have sparked extensive debates among Somalis and international observers alike. This article provides a comparative analysis of their leadership, focusing on governance, security, foreign policy, national unity, and economic reforms.

Governance and Political Stability

Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (2012–2017, re-elected in 2022) has emphasized reconciliation and institution-building. His administration has focused on dialogue with political actors, federal states, and opposition groups, striving for a more inclusive government. However, challenges such as corruption and weak state institutions remain persistent.

Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo (2017–2022) prioritized centralized power and strong executive control, often clashing with federal states. His tenure saw delays in elections and accusations of authoritarianism. However, his administration attempted key reforms in financial transparency and anti-corruption measures, including securing debt relief agreements with international lenders.

Security and Counterterrorism

Security remains Somalia’s most pressing issue, primarily due to the persistent threat of Al-Shabaab.

• Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s approach has been centered on rebuilding national forces and fostering community-led resistance against Al-Shabaab. His second term has seen an intensified military campaign backed by clan militias and international allies.
• Farmajo’s tenure focused on strengthening Somalia’s security forces, with efforts to reduce dependency on AMISOM (now ATMIS). However, his government was criticized for politicizing security institutions, especially during election disputes.

Foreign Policy and Regional Relations

Somalia’s diplomatic stance under both leaders has been shaped by geopolitical rivalries in the Horn of Africa.

• Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has pursued a balanced foreign policy, seeking improved ties with neighbors like Kenya and Ethiopia while maintaining Somalia’s sovereignty.
• Farmajo’s administration leaned toward a strong alliance with Ethiopia and Eritrea, straining relations with Kenya and the UAE. His decision to cut diplomatic ties with Kenya over maritime disputes was controversial.

Economic Reforms and Public Finance Management

Both leaders made efforts to improve Somalia’s economic framework, though with differing priorities.

• Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo’s administration introduced key reforms in public finance management, particularly in increasing revenue collection, reducing reliance on donor aid, and improving fiscal discipline. His government achieved a major milestone in securing Somalia’s eligibility for debt relief under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative, allowing Somalia to access international financial support. However, Farmajo’s administration faced criticism for a lack of transparency in managing public funds, with allegations of misappropriation of resources, particularly in security and infrastructure projects.
• Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s second term has focused on continuing the debt relief process and expanding economic opportunities through regional trade and investment partnerships. However, his administration faces significant challenges, including accusations of corruption within key government sectors and a weak institutional framework for economic governance. Critics argue that despite international financial aid, tangible improvements in Somalia’s economic conditions remain slow.

Corruption Allegations and Accountability

Both administrations have been marred by allegations of corruption, although the nature and scale of the accusations differ.

• During Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s first term (2012–2017), his government faced major corruption scandals, including mismanagement of international donor funds and allegations of embezzlement within key ministries. The UN Monitoring Group on Somalia reported significant irregularities in how aid money was handled, which contributed to his electoral loss in 2017. His second term has been met with renewed scrutiny, particularly regarding government contracts and revenue-sharing agreements with foreign entities.
• Farmajo’s administration made efforts to improve financial transparency, but was accused of using state funds for political gain. Reports surfaced about funds being directed toward pro-government security forces and political allies, especially during the contentious election period. Additionally, opposition figures accused Farmajo’s government of lacking accountability in its financial dealings with foreign partners, including Qatar and Turkey.

National Unity and Federalism

Federalism remains a divisive issue in Somalia.

• Hassan Sheikh Mohamud promotes a conciliatory approach, engaging with regional states to foster cooperation.
• Farmajo sought a more centralized governance model, often clashing with federal states like Puntland and Jubaland, which accused him of authoritarian tendencies.

Conclusion

Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo have each shaped Somalia’s political, security, and economic landscape in different ways. Farmajo's tenure was marked by efforts to strengthen state institutions, improve financial transparency, and assert a more centralized governance model. However, his confrontational approach to federal states and election-related disputes led to political instability and accusations of authoritarianism. His administration’s focus on security sector reforms and economic restructuring, including securing debt relief, was seen as a positive step, though allegations of financial mismanagement persisted.

On the other hand, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has prioritized reconciliation and institutional rebuilding, aiming to mend relations with federal states and regional partners. His leadership style leans towards consensus-building, which has helped ease tensions but has also faced criticism for slow progress in governance and economic reforms. While his administration continues the debt relief process and expands military campaigns against Al-Shabaab, corruption concerns remain a significant challenge.

Ultimately, the success of Somalia’s leadership depends not just on individual presidents but on the ability to build sustainable institutions, enforce accountability, and foster long-term stability. As Somalia moves forward, addressing corruption, strengthening federal-state cooperation, and ensuring political inclusivity will be key in shaping the country's future.